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Mitch Trubisky 2020 Advanced Stats Review: Week 1



How did the advanced stats say that Mitch Trubisky has looked in 2020?

The nice thing about doing an advanced stats review for the 2018 and 2019 for Mitch Trubisky, is we now have a collection of stats from his best and worst season to see where the differences are. Since 2020 is a crucial is a year, this gives us a great chance to look at Trubisky week by week and see which way he is trending too, or if he is better or worse than past years in certain areas.

Under Pressure

Trubisky was under pressure 32% of the time in 2019, compared to 30% in 2018. On Sunday, he faced pressure just 27% of the time. That could be an indictment of the offensive line, or the Lions pressure, but he still saw less than a normal game. For what it is worth, Trubisky was 3-8 under pressure on Sunday according to PFF, which is a bit worse than his normal numbers, but is a very small sample.


The Lions blitzed Trubisky 42% of the time, which is more than the past two years of 27, and 26% respectively. Still, the line gave up less pressure than usual. Beyond that, Trubisky has been awful against the blitz, seeing drops in most key statistics. In one game, and only 11 pass attempts against the blitz, he was 7-11, threw a touchdown, and had an 8.3 yards per attempt, which is better than when he sat in a clean pocket. This is a small sample, but noticing the blitz is mental. The line not allowing pressure against the blitz, and Trubisky excelling can show better pre-snap understanding.

Time to Throw

In the past two years, Trubisky has averaged 2.65, and 2.64 seconds to throw. Sunday, he averaged 2.99. That is higher than average because of some his scrambles, but this also shows that it may have been the line more than his processing. The times he held the ball too long were never leading to him making big plays happen, but rather him making mistakes. The line gave him time, and sometimes he was not decisive enough.

Air Yard Differential

Trubisky has had a -2.7 air yard to passing yard differential in both of the last two years. This year, it is down -2.3. This is not far off of his normal day, however, he also is averaging almost two yards further down the field in his intended distance. This also is likely being aided by the dime he dropped to win the game.

Air Yards to Sticks

In 2018, Trubisky was aggressive and threw 0.1 yards beyond the sticks. In 2019, he had a -1.2 differential, and was checking down more. On Sunday, he averaged 2.5 yards beyond the sticks per attempt. This likely again was aided by throwing deep late.


His aggressive rating was similar in 2018 and 2019 at 17.7% and 17.8%. On Sunday, this number was 36%, almost double his average. That is the number of tight windows throws, so while this can be a good thing, it can also show that he was not throwing to wide open players often, which is not great.

Expected Completion Percent

In 2018, he had a 1.4 expected completion rate. That means he completed more passes than he should have. In 2019, it went down to -1%, highlighting his regression. Sunday, that number was -0.7. Overall, a lot of these are showing that while his fourth quarter bailed him out, it was still an up and down day, and somewhere in between 2018 and 2019.


CPOE, which uses a similar look at completion percentage had him at -2.33 in 2019 and 1.67 in 2019. Unfortunately, on Sunday he had a -6.09 CPOE which correlates more with that high aggressiveness rating. Perhaps some completions he got away with.


EPA, or expected points added looks into the value of each play that he threw a pass. In 2019, he had a -.02 EPA, showing when he threw passes, it hurt the team. In 2018, he had a 0.2, which is positive. In 2020, he is in between with a 0.08.

Next: Jaylon Johnson shines in debut

EPA/CPOE Composite

Combining the value he brings per play along with the accuracy he brings can really pin point how much fo the success is on his shoulders. In 2019, he had a 0.1, and that number cut in half to 0.058 last year. Unfortunately, those aggressive passes hurt him here, and he had a 0.044 yesterday. He added value by making big plays, but was inaccurate at times and made questionable decisions.




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Arizona Cardinals look to fly into win streak after upset win




If expectations weren’t high enough for the Arizona Cardinals this season, things are going to get even tougher as they look to build their first winning streak of 2020.

To some, the Arizona Cardinals aren’t expected to do much in 2020. They weren’t supposed to beat the reigning NFC Champions on the road for the season opener. Kyler Murray wasn’t supposed to get away from Nick Bosa and their defense. And the defense wasn’t supposed to get the stop at the end of the game for the win.

They fell behind 10-0 and things looked bleak early on. But they fought back, and Kyler Murray showed the NFL world that his MVP mentions aren’t just a fantasy, but a reality for the second year quarterback.

Kyler and Co. will look to follow up the upset at home, as they face off against the Washington Football Team in Glendale on Sunday. Washington defeated the the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. A game in which their defense only allowed 57 yards rushing and 208 yards passing. Carson Wentz was also sacked 8 times, as Ryan Kerrigan and rookie Chase Young dominated the battered up offensive line. The nameless team looked like a hungry bunch looking to establish a name of their own against a division opponent.

The Cardinals will look to combat that pass rush with their high-flying offense after putting up 404 yards of total offense against the Niners. Murray finished the day with 230 yards passing, 91 yards rushing and two total touchdowns. WR DeAndre Hopkins will look to also follow up his Cards debut after catching a career-high 14 passes for 151 yards. Certainly an established rapport for the new duo.

Entering Week 2, the Cardinals have won their season opener, are over .500, and in first place in their respective division, for the first time since 2015. If they want to keep riding this momentum, they’ll need to filter out the extra attention, welcome the adversity and just play Cardinal football. The sky will truly be the limit for the Red Birds.

Next: 3 key matchups for Cardinals vs Washington

Again, to some, they aren’t supposed to be a playoff contender. To some … but not the Arizona Cardinals.

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Atlanta Falcons secondary will be the key to winning versus Cowboys




After a terrible game plan in week one, the Atlanta Falcons have a chance for redemption.

The Atlanta Falcons secondary gets a second chance Sunday, for fans to see what they’re all about. In fact, the Falcons defensive backs versus the Cowboys receivers will be the key to winning the game Sunday.

The last time these two teams matched up in 2018, Julio Jones made the Falcons best play as a defender. Matt Ryan overthrew him, Jones turned and leveled the defender breaking up a for sure interception. If Raheem Morris is smart, he would be showing his young guys that play.

The Cowboys will roll out Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. You can expect them to get the bulk of the targets as the Boys will be without their top tight end. But don’t forget about that man Ezekiel Elliott.

The Atlanta Falcons would be wise to stack the box against him just about every chance they get. That’s a running back that can change the game.

And if they do that, they are going to have to rely heavily on man to man coverage in the secondary. The Atlanta Falcons forced just four incompletions last week versus Seattle on 35 attempts. That’s real life, not a Madden statistic. And while Dak Prescott is no Russell Wilson, any professional quarterback should be salivating seeing the way the Falcons secondary performed last week.

What do the Atlanta Falcons put more emphasis on in Week 2?

The Falcons are going to have to pick their poison: sell out to stop the run, or allow Zeke to carve them up so they can stay comfortable in their outdated Cover 2 scheme. For some reason, the coaching staff still sees potential in Isaiah Oliver despite receivers being more open than Waffle House when they’re going against him.

You can expect him to be matched up on Amari Cooper. The Cowboys would also be smart to make sure Cooper gets plenty of chances against AJ Terrell. While a rookie cornerback might be the hardest position in the NFL, we expected him to struggle at points this year. ACC, SEC, whoever he faced in college, you’re going against talent on a different level.

Next: Recent history favors the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday

If the Falcons hope to win Sunday and save their season and keep Dan Quinn’s seat just warm, Oliver and Terrell are going to have to play like the professionals they are getting paid to be. If not, the Cowboys might have their way on the ground and through the air. If the two young corners step up, we might see a glimpse of what the Falcons defense can be.

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Buffalo Bills: Inactives for Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins




Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano were ruled out Friday. Both linebackers suffered injuries in Week 1 and with Edmunds practicing on a limited basis and Milano not practicing at all, this wasn’t much of a surprise.

The additional players that are inactive this week are: quarterback Jake Fromm, running back T.J. Yeldon, linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips, offensive lineman Ike Boettger, and tight end Lee Smith.

The loss of Edmunds and Milano is certainly big for this defense. Tyrel Dodson is expected to start at middle linebacker while A.J. Klein will be the second linebacker when they go to their nickel defense.

As for the third linebacker, this will be a team effort as the Bills will look at a combination of Deon Lacey, Andre Smith, and even possibly Siran Neal in certain passing situations. Lacey is an interesting active because the Bills just added him this week. While he may see some time on defense, he will likely see a majority of his playing time on special teams.

On the positive side, Bills fans for the first time this year will get to see defensive tackle Vernon Butler, who is active for today’s game. He missed last week after dealing with a hamstring but should get a full workload against the Dolphins this week.

Next: Who will be the X-factor for the Buffalo Bills in Week 2?

In addition to Butler, the Bills second round pick A.J. Epenesa will be active for the first time in his NFL career. He was a surprise inactive against the New York Jets but the question now is how much playing time will he get. The Bills will have nine defensive linemen active for today’s game against the Miami Dolphins.

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